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Gary's Blog 03/20/26 12:49:35 PM
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3-20-26
Grains came under profit taking pressure today from the Funds as futures closed moderately lower across the CBOT. Energy prices remain elevated which has and should continue to help keep grains supported. (outside of profit taking/consolidation days) The war effort is ongoing, and a quick end is now unlikely. Increasing costs are starting to cause issues with ocean freight and logistical disruptions. The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed the larger the ripple effects will be in the entire world economy. The all-important acres/stocks report is just 7 trading days away now. Increased volatility and wild price swings are likely heading into spring planting.
3-19-26
It was a risk on day in the grains with solid green across the board. The war with Iran had tensions on high today with oil trading near $100/Br which translated to outside money finding refuge in the CBOT. (corn/beans/wheat) Corn is nearing old highs while soybeans still have some lost ground to make up from Mondays pounding. HRW area forecasts are less than ideal with hot/dry weather on tap. This situation could push funds into a long position if the crop continues to decline.
3-17-26
It was a consolidation trade today after yesterday’s crash in the grain markets. Soybeans are trying to rebound but US/China relations remain in question. The hopes of additional 8mmt bean purchase from China have faded but not all hope is lost. (The summit is delayed but not cancelled) The market was ripe for a correction it just came as a shock to get it all in one trade session. Moving forward the Strait of Hormuz will still dominate headlines, but acres/planting weather will start to gain importance. Cash sales have come to complete halt, but the pipeline was refilled for quite a while on the recent rally. It’s time to start thinking about wheat top dress if you haven’t already. Please contact the agronomy office with any questions.
3-16-26
It was limit down for soybeans today (-70) as tensions rise between the US and China. Reports yesterday surfaced that the meeting between the two countries may be delayed as China doesn’t want to help the US with opening the Strait of Hormuz. This was all the funds needed to hear to spark a massive, long liquidation event. A near record (long) position per Fridays CFTC report added fuel to fire as no one wants to be the last one out when this type of event does occur. The thought process going forward is China will not purchase the 8mmt extra from the US but that was never a “deal” to begin with. It just goes to show how headline sensitive grains can be when big money is throwing their weight around.
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