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Gary's Blog 07/10/26 12:56:28 PM
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7-6-26 Crop ratings G/E %
TW LW OH
Corn 67 67 55
Beans 64 65 54
7-10-26
It was all green following the USDA report at noon today with corn, beans, and wheat all posting modest gains. Carryouts got tighter via increased demand which puts more importance on yield now. Sub trendline yields in either corn or beans are unacceptable at these demand levels. Corn carryout for 26-27 now resides at 1.79 billion bushels. We have grown accustomed to 2+bb ample supply scenario the past few years. Soybeans are just above 300mb now which seems to be the line between just enough, yet, uncomfortable if we slip below that level. The fate of the bean market is in Chinas hands. Wheat soared higher, allowing those with unpriced bushels to capture the magical $6+ cash price. The wheat crop appears to be getting smaller across the board as harvest marches on. (SRW and HRW) It will be another volatile Sunday night/Monday as traders position around weather forecasts.
7-9-26
Today was all about position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s S&D report. The summer row crops were weaker while wheat posted modest gains. Updated balance sheets will be released on Friday at noon. Normally the July report doesn’t provide much action (too early for yield adjustments) but surprises do happen. Focus will quickly shift to the midday forecast as we head into the weekend. Traders don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of this ever-changing forecast.
7-8-26
The rally came to an abrupt end about 10am this morning as selling took over the CBOT to finish the day. A combination of events was to blame as geopolitical risk heat back up. (US/Iran conflict) Midday weather forecast has gone slightly cooler pushing the heat dome further west in the extended. It’s hard to predict weather patterns more than a few days out causing some conflicting information between the GFS and Euro. Traders might also be banking profits from the recent runup until forecasts come together and paint a better picture. (more consistent between the two)
7-7-26
The market held on to yesterday’s gains and pushed higher around midday. China demand for US beans was likely the main driver with weather not far behind. Forecasts are suggesting a hot/dry July in the central US which isn’t ideal for pollinating corn. Trendline yields are needed at current demand levels for both corn/beans. Traders don’t want to be caught short if yield potential starts to slide due to unfavorable weather conditions. Wheat harvest is 90% complete in the area and should finish up by the rain on Friday. Yields were solid but not as good as the past 2 years.
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