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Gary's Blog 06/16/26 12:25:13 PM
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6-15-26 Crop ratings G/E %
TW LW OH
Corn 68 67 64
Beans 66 65 49
6-16-26
Bargain buying continues on the CBOT after we entered deeply oversold territory. End users are finding value at current levels as US grains become competitive again. Crop conditions improved 1% (G/E) for both corn and beans last night as Ohio made one of the largest gains of all the midwestern states. (now sits at 64%) Strong storms are predicted to hit key states (IL, IN, OH) today and tomorrow with damaging winds and possible hail. The key will be if these areas are large enough to matter to the market. It feels like we have entered into a sideways pattern in the grains until a 1) threat emerges or 2) the 2026 production can be assured.
6-15-26
After a lower open, grains were able to make a nice turnaround and finish in the green. Key support levels held in both corn and beans as bottom picking/end user pricing showed up mid-morning. Fridays CFTC report showed funds are now net short the corn/wheat markets while still long nearly 100k soybeans. There has been a sizable shift in ownership as just a few weeks ago funds held 350,000+ net long corn position. The key here being do they test the short side in a similar fashion? If so that would probably mean sub $4 corn. Weather forecasts are arguably too wet for some, but overall net positive for most, thus bearish. Locally we could see 1-3inches this week with some strong storms. (not ideal for the wheat) It will be a short week with no markets on Friday because of Juneteenth.
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