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Gary's Blog 11/14/25 11:14:46 AM
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11-14-25
Yield 25-26
Corn 186
Beans 53
Carryout 25-26
Corn 2.154
Beans .290
Well, the USDA didn’t disappoint as yields weren’t cut as expected. Markets shot double digits lower for both corn and beans on the data dump. Everyone thought a much larger cut was coming but with the gov shutdown “normal data collection services were unavailable.” Traders may take these numbers with a grain of salt. Until these numbers can be digested (by human behavior) the algos will trade what’s fed to them. (bearish numbers)
11-13-25
Markets scored fresh new highs on this pre-report trade day. Yield cut talks are now more than a whisper with some calling for sizeable decreases in tomorrow’s report. Corn breached its 200mda and found technical buying closing up 6 cents. Soybeans made new year highs testing the $11.50 mark on the January contract. It all comes down to the numbers released tomorrow at noon. Algos and momentum will push price direction. Look for a midday update with the breakdown.
11-12-25
Grains finished in the green as all the focus will now shift to Friday’s crop report. It’s been a few months since the USDA has released any data which will put more emphasis on this one. It’s almost universally agreed that yields come down in both corn and beans. The big discrepancy is to what extent. (2,4,8 bpa?) Another potential price mover could be changes in carryout levels due to shifting demand. We will have to wait and see. CFTC numbers have also been absent, which leaves fund positions largely unknown. All these things bundled together could make for an interesting trade on Friday.
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