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Gary's Blog 05/07/26 2:33:47 PM
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5-4-26 Planting progress %
TW LW OH
Corn 38 25 33
Beans 33 23 30
5-7-26
The downward spiral in the grains continues as funds exit long positions. The momentum has shifted with a peace deal on the table with Iran and better weather forecasted for the Midwest. If the peace deal isn’t inked its likely back to the “risk on” attitude and commodities could rally. Theres a lot of moving pieces to this market and traders have chosen certain areas to focus on with little rhyme or reason on specific days. Fundamentals will come back to forefront at some point and large carryout’s currently favor the bears.
5-6-26
It wasn’t a good day for the grains as futures ran deep into the red. Commodities sold off as a peace agreement with Iran is “close.” Crude is well below $100/brl which had fund managers liquidating length in the grains soon after. Although the forecast is wet/cold for the next week there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Extended range forecasts are showing dry/warm towards the end of the month. Yield potential could be impacted by the later planting date, but trend line yields are still in play with good summer weather. It’s all about the Funds, war, and weather on the CBOT.
5-4-26
The markets rallied to new highs for the summer row crops on political/weather uncertainty. The War with Iran had commodities pushing higher with Oil back above $100/Barrel. Mother Nature hasn’t done the freshly planted crops many favors as it’s just too cold/wet for germination. It looks like we have another solid week of this weather before it warms back to seasonal temps. Planting progress numbers will be released at 4pm and the Funds are already sitting on rather large net long positions. We could be setting ourselves up for a massive liquidation event if and when they decide to bail on their positions.
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