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3-11-26
The rally is back on in the grains after a quick one-day breather.  Soybeans have led the way higher as some private firms estimate funds to be long over 200K+ contracts now.  We could be flirting with record territory by the weekend.  The Strait of Hormuz was closed which sparked the rally after yesterday’s rumors of it being opened.  Commodities have benefited tremendously from this war so far.  Fundamentals will likely be on the backburner until things settle down in the middle east.  This is a macro rally with grains being tugged along. (Unlike a crop report/weather issue specific to grains) It’s much harder to predict and violent swings are likely as a result.  Have target orders in place to take advantage of wild price movements. 



3-10-26
The March S&D crop report was a nonevent as carryouts were all left unchanged from February.  The focus is back on war and oil prices.  After yesterday’s spectacular trade oil continues to fall as tensions ease with Trump saying the war will be over soon.   Wheat has already given back nearly 60 cents since the high nearly 24 hours ago.  Corn spent the session solidly in the red while beans showed modest strength. (likely to do spread trading) The past few sessions have been all about the Spec traders and how willing they are to keep buying grains despite bearish fundamentals.  This will drive price until we get closer to the March 31^st acres report and spring weather trends. 





3-9-26
Grains soared higher at the open on the back of crude oil but were unable to hold on into the close.  All three grains finished in the red after posting new rally highs early in the session.  Oil has and will be the hot topic this week.  Grain fundamentals haven’t changed and the recent rally has been ignited by the run in crude.  Funds have been huge buyers of all three commodities lately and have nearly eliminated their net short positions in wheat and are now long corn/beans.  The change of ownership of grains over the past 3 days have been record large.  Producer selling has been heavy and delivery logistics are becoming a problem with such large amounts of volume trying to move at once.  Basis has softened on the recent rally to help manage supply.