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Gary's Blog 09/03/26 1:02:05 PM
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9-3-26
With an early morning announce that a peace deal “could be” on the table in the black sea grains broke hard on the news. Wheat is especially headline sensitive traded as much as 44 cents lower on Putin’s comments. At midday however, wheat is well off its sessions lows as traders have had time to process the information. A peace deal will take time and effort from both sides which hasn’t been seen by either in nearly 4+ years. Corn and beans felt the pressure as well but again buying unfolded midday in classic mega bull fashion. It’s been a hot/dry finish for most with early harvest data now coming out of the delta. So far yields have been slightly disappointing. Locally harvest is about 3-4 week away yet for most.
9-2-26
The CBOT was lower across the board today as grains took a much-needed break. Fundamentally nothing has changed but words of Funds holding record net long positions led to some profit taking. The recent rally has been fast and furious with the potential to go into a more sideways type of trade until the September S&D report. The USDA needs to print a yield close to the whisper numbers of 175-76 on corn and 51.9-52.1 on soybeans to keep the current enthusiasm to the upside. If carryout levels drop to pipeline levels, we will need to find prices that encourage demand rationing. Since it’s been so long since we have seen it, those new numbers could be surprising. (post covid inflation era)
9-1-26
The rally shows no signs of slowing down with all three posting new contract highs. Soybeans led the charge today as China is still activity seeking US beans. RINs/SRE credits are also making headlines with large refiners expecting to pick up the slack. (more soy oil) War threats between Russia/Ukraine are heating up which has been a bullish catalyst for the wheat market. New fund money is piling into grains with no signs of slowing. A pull/correction at this point would be healthy (long term) for the market. A 3-day weekend is looming followed by an important USDA report on the 11th. This has been a large counter seasonal move by the trade.
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