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Gary's Blog 05/19/26 12:36:42 PM
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5-18-26 Planting progress %
TW LW OH
Corn 76 57 52
Beans 67 49 46
5-19-26
Yesterday’s big rally came on the heels of the Whitehouse “fact sheet” saying China agreed to purchase 17billion worth of AG goods. No one is quite sure what exactly that means yet (SRW, corn, sorghum?) but it was largely unexpected and positive for the bulls. Planting progress is humming right along at 76% complete in corn and 67% in soybeans. These are well ahead of the 5-year averages. The problem or concern is the 10–14-day forecasts. They continue to advertise excessively wet conditions over the vast majority of the corn belt. This could potentially put us in June before field work resumes. This could cause a shift in acres (corn to beans) if the calendar gets much past the first week of June for most producers. Weather premiums are being built into the market. One change in the forecast could lead to a mass liquidation event as we’ve seen in the past. This market has been notorious for erasing premiums quickly measured in hours not days like in the past.
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