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Gary's Blog 09/10/26 2:14:08 PM
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9-10-26
The CBOT pushed higher today with soybeans out in front. A large sale to unknown was reported (likely China) which sent beans +20 higher to close the day. Crude Oil was the hot topic in the macros as we crossed the magical $100/brl level. Corn followed oils lead and ended the day 6 cents better. The Sept S&D crop report will be released tomorrow at noon. This will allow traders to update their balance sheets headed directly into harvest. We look for the first beans to come off early next week. Most of the early planted corn is at or near black layer which puts moistures at 30-33%. It’s going to need some dry down time before producers get serious about shelling.
9-9-26
Profit taking was apparent again today with Funds trimming some length heading into Friday’s report. StoneX posted some bearish yield data with corn coming in at 182.9 and soybeans at 53 bpa. These numbers are well above the USDA and would produce a sizeable selloff if printed on Government paper Friday at noon. Pre-report estimates however are well underneath that with corn at 178 while soybeans are around the 52 bpa mark. Record demand and smaller projected yields have kept this rally going. We will need to keep feeding the bull if we want to see this rally continue through harvest. Tomorrow will be a position squaring session.
9-8-26
The market is in corrective mode as traders consolidated coming out of the holiday weekend. Pre report position squaring is also noted with the all-important Sep crop report just 3 days away. StoneX will take another shot at corn/bean yield estimate this afternoon. Many in the industry believe a 176-77 type yield number is being penciled in. Early harvest reports are disappointing with below APH yields common place. Funds are holding record long positions in corn with over 400k contracts being published on Fridays CFTC report. Crop ratings look to hold steady to slightly lower tonight. (although waning with importance)
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