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Gary's Blog 07/31/26 1:32:13 PM
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7-27-26 Crop ratings G/E %
TW LW OH
Corn 63 67 60
Beans 63 66 57
7-31-26
A change in the forecast has sent futures lower as cool/wet weather blankets the Midwest. Current models are suggesting 1-3 inches (that are desperately needed) over large areas of the corn belt the next few days. This is being treated like a crop saving/bushel adding rain by traders. (maybe rightfully so if the advertised amounts fall) Its amazing how fast things can change with today’s technology and algorithms. Wheat has been product of Russia/Ukraine war games, and we are back to the: on again off again type trade. As the calendar flips to August yield estimates will start to become the topic of conversation for the 2026 crop. This week’s rains may put trendline (or above) yields back on the table. The USDA will take its first shot at it August 12th in the S&D report.
7-29-26
It was a bad day for the bulls as futures plummeted in corn and soybeans. A simple change in the forecasts had traders extracting weather premium as much better chances of rain are offered across the corn belt. The extreme heat also pushes further west in the extended allowing for near normal temps over the central US. This is your classic weather market scenario as easy come easy go this time of year. Crude took a different path and jumped +$5 on war uncertainty. The war with Iran Is far from over but grains have distances themselves from it. (at least temporarily) It’s not uncommon to put “harvest lows” in August.
7-28-26
A turnaround Tuesday unfolded on the CBOT as traders consolidated after yesterday's lashing. Crop conditions fell 4% points in the G/E category with the Dakotas being the hardest hit. Problem areas are starting to surface but weather the next 2-4 weeks will be critical. Some areas could still be salvaged and produce near trendline yields but rain better materialize fast for that to happen. Weather forecasts are trying to bring rain into the central US next week but the placement has been erratic.
7-27-26
In a classic weekend weather market fashion, the trade opened sharply lower to start the week. A shift in the forecast had added rain for IL/IA/WI which triggered sell signals for the algos. Crude also fell hard on hope that peace talks with Iran will resume. Crop ratings should decline tonight at 4pm to reflect last week’s heat out west. Was today just an overreaction to change in the weather or will it be a deeper correction that last more than a few trading sessions? That will be key for price direction into August.
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