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Gary's Blog 08/12/26 12:56:17 PM
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8-10-26 Crop ratings G/E %
TW LW OH
Corn 61 61 62
Beans 62 63 59
8-12-26
The crop report didn’t disappoint as yields were slashed but acres increased. Corn yield now sits at 180.7 which was cut from 183 last month. NASS used a new method of satellite imagery/data collection from federal agencies and farmer surveys to come up with the data. Corn acres also increased by 1.4 million. This has pushed corn carryout to a sub-1.7BB level which puts stocks/use ration just above 10%. Soybeans were in a similar boat but the increase in acres more than offset the reduction in yield (53 down to 52.7). Wheat was up 20 going into the report on Ukraine/Russia disruptions/fighting and held on to the gains post report.
8-11-26
Traders were in liquidation mode on this pre-report day with futures deep in the red. Whispers of yields at or above trend have pushed corn/beans lower but the USDA has been known to throw us a few surprises. DTN did their “yield estimate” and came up with a 178bpa in corn. If the USDA would publish something that low we could be in for some fireworks. It all boils down to the government numbers released tomorrow at noon. That will likely drive price direction into September.
8-10-26
It was another uneventful day on the CBOT as volume subsides waiting on Wednesday’s report. Crops spent much of the day around unchanged. Wet weather for the Eastern corn belt is the hot topic today. Excessive rainfall of 2-6inches for OH/IN/MI is in the forecast. Western states such as the Dakotas will miss out on most of the action. Position squaring will be the theme tomorrow as the USDA data could send shock waves through the Ag industry. Acres and yield will be up for grabs with a wide range of estimates in both.
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