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Gary's Blog 05/21/26 12:41:08 PM
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5-18-26 Planting progress %
TW LW OH
Corn 76 57 52
Beans 67 49 46
5-21-26
Markets were mostly red as the 3-day holiday weekend is just 1 trading day away. A risk off attitude was noted. Corn exports were surprisingly good, but it wasn’t enough to keep futures supported today. Wet, wet, wet says the weatherman for the next 10 days. This has to be cause for concern for SRW producers in KY, TN, IN, and S ILL. Some are forecasting up to 10inches of rain over the next 7 days. Even the summer row crops will likely suffer if that much rain materializes. NW Ohio will see rain over the next 5 days, but Luckly totals are in the 1-2inch range. Unfortunately, it still looks like enough to sideline tractors for another week. The final 20%ish of the corn might have to get planted in June the way it looks today.
5-20-26
We are back to peace talks with Iran today. (same movie different day) Just like in the past few weeks when this happens commodities tumble while the stock market soars. Then when the talks fail the opposite occurs. Is this time different? That remains to be seen but patience is growing thin. Weather is becoming a concern in the S Midwest/Delta as too much moisture is starting to become a problem. SRW quality could also be affected if we don’t see some drying in between rain showers. Phones are quiet as producers are unwilling to sell at current prices.
5-19-26
Yesterday’s big rally came on the heels of the Whitehouse “fact sheet” saying China agreed to purchase 17billion worth of AG goods. No one is quite sure what exactly that means yet (SRW, corn, sorghum?) but it was largely unexpected and positive for the bulls. Planting progress is humming right along at 76% complete in corn and 67% in soybeans. These are well ahead of the 5-year averages. The problem or concern is the 10–14-day forecasts. They continue to advertise excessively wet conditions over the vast majority of the corn belt. This could potentially put us in June before field work resumes. This could cause a shift in acres (corn to beans) if the calendar gets much past the first week of June for most producers. Weather premiums are being built into the market. One change in the forecast could lead to a mass liquidation event as we’ve seen in the past. This market has been notorious for erasing premiums quickly measured in hours not days like in the past.
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