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Gary's Blog 12/12/25 2:00:19 PM
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12-12-25
Soybean length by the funds is being liquidated at fast rate. As the backlogged CFTC reports are being released, its revealing funds were a lot longer than expected. This has led to GMO (get me out) trade we saw this week. Without a SA weather issue or production hiccup the world will be well supplied with beans. This is becoming a bigger story then China demand at the moment. Had these reports been released in “real time” we might not have had such a sharp rally back in November. Support could show up around the 10.60-10.65F level where we left an open chart gap back in harvest. Tech guys will say “gaps always get filled.” Corn has traded in tight range all week but came under pressure today because of soybeans. Corn demand is record large so it will come down to the supply side of things in mid-January when the USDA re-works yield/acres.
12-11-25
It was a dull session on the CBOT with grains closing just above unchanged. Tuesday’s report has been fully digested as little changed on the balance sheet. The two big items now are Chiense purchases and SA weather. Both of those categories remain disappointing if you’re a market bull. There have been no further updates on the “bridge payment” other than it will be commodity/acre specific. Those details are expected to be released by the end of the month.
Report 12-9-25
Carryout
Dec Avg Est
Corn 2.029 2.124
Beans .290 .302
Wheat .901 .890
Other than corn carryout being reduced it was a tame crop report from the USDA. December’s report usually is a nonevent, and this looks to fall right in line. Corn is up 3 while beans are 4 lower since the release.
12-8-25
Soybeans have fallen below the psychological 11$ mark as futures ran deep in the red. The pace of Chinese purchases is slow, and traders are questioning the 12mmt figure now. (Even with the new deadline Feb28th.) South American crop size is busy making headlines and not in a good way for market bulls. Another record crop is getting closer to reality each passing day as weather remains nearly ideal. The steep discount to US beans will likely draw Chinas attention there. Trumps “bridge payment” should be announced today with many speculating corn and beans will both be included. More details will be posted when available.
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