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Gary's Blog 03/27/26 1:23:49 PM
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3-27-26
The big Ag appreciation day was a failure to market bulls as no surprise announcements were released. Soybeans were quick to erase premiums closing double digits lower. Anticipation was high that something “bullish” was on the horizon, but nothing materialized. Corn headed south when soybeans started to slip, ending 5 cents lower. Rain for the HRW areas of the country are in question as weather models are struggling with the placement. Wheat has held up surprisingly well considering what the other two have done. CFTC report will be released at 4pm today with many looking for large net long positions in corn/soybeans. This could leave grains vulnerable to a selloff if we see a negative report on Tuesday. As always, the market will be watching truth social over the weekend for any updates from the president.
3-26-26
The summer row crops spent most of the day around unchanged as we wait to see what comes out of Ag appreciation day tomorrow at the Whitehouse. Wheat caught a bid midday as weather models have shifted rain further east away from the drought stricken HRW areas. The next few trading sessions will be about position squaring for the coming crop report. (pending a surprise headline breaking tweet) Acre estimates for Tuesday vary wildly with 91-98 million corn acres being discussed by multiple firms. If we fall towards the lower end of that spectrum +5 dollar new corn could be on the table. However, if (like last year) we trend towards the 97-98milion we are looking at another year of over supply with trendline yields. Overall mother nature will be the ultimate factor as we have the entire spring/summer weather cycle to get through.
3-25-26
“Trumps headed to China May 14TH”That was big news story today that sparked the afternoon rally. Soybeans traded as much as 20 higher when the news was released. Corn and wheat followed along both, posting nice gains to end the day. Friday is supposed to be AG celebration day at the Whitehouse, and many think an AG related news story will be released. (RVO) There will be a lot for traders to unpack the next few days with all the (possible) announcements and the crop report. The March Acres report could spark some fireworks on the CBOT Tuesday.
3-24-26
Today we found corn/wheat in the green while soybeans came under pressure to close 8 cents lower in the nearby May contact. Winter wheat ratings continue to decline in HRW country with extreme weather conditions. Parts of OK and KS saw huge temp swings (90+ degrees to below freezing) this past week. The lack of moisture is also becoming a concern in those areas. The war with Iran rages on with no end in sight despite yesterday’s twitter/Truth Social debacle. ( oil $3-4/bl higher) The Acres/Stocks report is only 5 trading days away and position squaring is likely going into the report/month end.
3-23-26
Conflicting news reports created some wild market swings early this morning. It’s hard to tell facts from fiction when tweets move the markets so rapidly. (Especially when “said tweets” are denied from the other side. Iran leaders) So are we in negotiations with Iran? One side says yes while others say no. It’s hard to make heads or tails out of this to begin with as it really doesn’t relate to grain fundamentals. Energy prices have been the reason behind the recent grain rally and once the war is over funds may look for the exit door on profitable long positions.
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