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Gary's Blog 08/25/26 1:46:49 PM
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8-24-26 Crop ratings G/E %
TW LW OH
Corn 57 60 61
Beans 60 13 58
8-25-26
The Sept corn contract closed above $5.00 for the first time in 2026. Early morning selling gave way when spec buyers showed up after the morning coffee break. New rally highs were posted as producer selling has slowed down. Soybeans got to participate in the rally closing 14 cents higher as a large sale to “unknown” was reported. Traders are starting to digest that the US crop is getting smaller and it’s becoming universally accepted. The big unknown now is how small and we are seeing yield guesses from 172-178 among industry leaders. A 178bpa national corn yield is a far cry from a disaster, but a 172-73 type number is another story. Demand will come under the crosshairs as higher prices may push some buyers to alternate sources. First notice day for Sept futures is only 3 trading days away. Those with HTA’s or basis contracts will need priced or rolled by then.
8-24-26
The bullishness of the Profarmer tour has carried over into today with corn making new 3-year highs. The ultra-low yield number (173.2) was a surprise to many and has traders wanting to get long the market. Funds were already net long 250k corn as of Tuesday, so real time estimates are now in the low 300’s. The all time high was just under 450k back in the 2012 drought. PF has a history of being under the USDA but usually not by such a wide margin. Many are using a 175-177 type number today which would seem logical and where we might ultimately end up. On the other hand, soybeans are bearish with August rains pumping up yield potential. Traders have been willing sellers of the soy complex today. Wheat has been caught in the middle.
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