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Gary's Blog 01/07/26 2:32:06 PM
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1-7-26
Today’s market action found us on the buy side of trade with futures in the green at the close. It’s been a back-and-forth week as traders are positioning for Monday’s report. SA weather forecasts are largely unchanged with Argentina likely to get needed rain. Most in the industry think the current trade range will hold going into Monday. Other news is lacking with local grain movement steady but not overwhelming.
1-6-26
Grains came under pressure late in the day to finish in the red. A surprise midday change in the Argentina forecasts was to blame. (added much needed rain) Outside of SA weather its position squaring for most heading into Monday’s massive report. All data numbers will be fair game for the gov to adjust. Early estimates call for yield reductions in both crops but some of that could be offset by demand/acreage changes. (esp in soybeans) CFTC reports are finally “up to date” and funds still hold sizable net long positions. (+90,000) This is however significantly smaller than at the height of the rally when it was 230,000+. The corn position has been fairly neutral not pressing either side of unchanged too hard. It will all come down to the Jan report before we could possibly see a sizable shift in price direction.
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