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Gary's Blog 09/18/25 1:03:10 PM
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9-15-25
Harvest %
TW LW OH
Corn 7% 4% 1%
Beans 5% NA% 2%
9-18-25
It was a risk off day in the grains with futures closing in the red. Better yield reports in soybeans are being reported as harvest marches forward. Even locally we are surprised by the numbers with basically zero rain in the month in August. China still remains absent as a soybean buyer which is getting more concerning with each passing day. A phone call between the two leaders is expected tomorrow but traders are unwilling to add length ahead of it. Brazil has begun planting their soybean crop under nearly ideal conditions so far. The gap between the availability of cheap US beans to Brazil is relatively small. (only 3-4 months) That’s the key window we are entering now but rumors of China stockpiling beans ahead of this has been discussed at length in anticipation of a trade war. Our website (desktop & mobile) has added back futures and options tabs for those who asked where they went. Please check the website for updated harvest hours under the “hours” tab.
9-16-25
The anticipation of a China deal had the markets in the green today as the leaders are set to meet on Friday. Fund short covering was noted as they don’t want to get caught on the wrong side of a trade deal if one could be struck. Yields have been a hot topic so far, but we won’t get another update from the USDA until mid Oct. Updated Harvest hours are posted to the website daily.
9-15-25
Harvest is underway in NW Ohio. We have seen a huge range as far as yields are concerned. Moistures are all sub 13% with no rain in sight. Traders had the weekend to digest Friday’s report and today’s response wasn’t as positive. (Corn and beans both closed in the red.) The big takeaway from USDA data was the increase in acreage. That number is hard to fudge as it’s a certified FSA data point unlike yield estimates which are highly subjective. Early yield reports from the South are mixed to disappointing. Most would agree we see further yield drops in the coming reports. Please check the website for updated harvest hours.
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