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Gary's Blog 09/02/26 2:17:28 PM
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9-2-26
The CBOT was lower across the board today as grains took a much-needed break. Fundamentally nothing has changed but words of Funds holding record net long positions led to some profit taking. The recent rally has been fast and furious with the potential to go into a more sideways type of trade until the September S&D report. The USDA needs to print a yield close to the whisper numbers of 175-76 on corn and 51.9-52.1 on soybeans to keep the current enthusiasm to the upside. If carryout levels drop to pipeline levels, we will need to find prices that encourage demand rationing. Since it’s been so long since we have seen it, those new numbers could be surprising. (post covid inflation era)
9-1-26
The rally shows no signs of slowing down with all three posting new contract highs. Soybeans led the charge today as China is still activity seeking US beans. RINs/SRE credits are also making headlines with large refiners expecting to pick up the slack. (more soy oil) War threats between Russia/Ukraine are heating up which has been a bullish catalyst for the wheat market. New fund money is piling into grains with no signs of slowing. A pull/correction at this point would be healthy (long term) for the market. A 3-day weekend is looming followed by an important USDA report on the 11th. This has been a large counter seasonal move by the trade.
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