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Gary's Blog 06/26/26 12:56:50 PM
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6-22-26 Crop ratings G/E %
TW LW OH
Corn 68 68 57
Beans 66 66 55
6-26-26
A change in the forecast had traders backpaddling on the recent rally with a cooler profile offered at midday. The GFS has pushed the heat dome further west into the mountain states in the extended which is more crop favorable than what was offered the past few days. We are, however, going to experience some extreme heat next week but today’s models suggest it will be short lived. This time of year, Friday/Monday trades are volatile with everyone trying to position themselves for the next “weather event.” Early next week will be all about the acres report data on Tuesday afternoon. Private firms are really struggling with the corn acre number as guesses between 93.5-97.2 million have been published. A surprise in either direction would likely shock the market into a new price discovery mode.
6-25-26
Forecasts continue to verify the incoming heat dome, and it looks like traders finally took notice. Once the midday maps rolled out traders hit the buy button and all three grains took off higher. This was especially important in corn as we put new lows in early this morning. (key reversal) China looking for offers to secure US grain also helped support the market. Watch closely for any follow-through buying heading into the report on Tuesday. The July 4th holiday use to symbolize “make or break” weather for the US corn crop. Let’s see if that’s the case this year.
6-24-26
So far, the market hasn’t recognized or flat out doesn’t care about the incoming heat dome for the Midwest. Forecasts are aligning and becoming consistent with a blocking dome of hot/dry weather for the corn belt in July. Normally this would be extremely bullish, given the placement and time of year but crops are so well watered traders don’t see the need to chase futures higher. Time will tell if this well develop into 2026 “weather scare.” Other news is lacking and wheat harvest is around the corner. Focus will shift to the Acres report which is now just 4 trading days away.
6-23-26
It was a mixed session on the Chicago board of trade. Wheat harvest pressure is starting to show up while yield reports have been disappointing so far in southern Ohio. The summer row crops have leveled off and are in search of fresh news. Funds are now net short the corn market, which isn’t unusual for this time of year given the weather so far. Demand is strong but the acres report (June 30th) could be the next big market mover. There remains an open chart gap just below today’s trade in July corn that could be tested/filled in the next few sessions before we switch to September. (some believe religiously on gaps getting filled) New crop beans have held firmly near the $11 cash level. Focus will soon shift to the upcoming crop report and then July weather.
6-22-26
Selling returned to the CBOT after a long 3 day weekend. Non-threatening weather this time of year usually means the bears are in charge of price direction and that’s exactly what we are seeing. Updated crop ratings will be posted at 4pm today. Rain makes grain in Chicagoland.
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