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Gary's Blog 01/14/26 1:30:30 PM
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1-14-26
Grains have finally stabilized after the post report lashing. Futures closed 2-3 cents higher across the board for corn, beans, and wheat. Traders have fully digested the USDA numbers so now it’s back to SA weather and demand stories. China has nearly completed its pledge to purchase 12mmt from the US as much cheaper Brazilian beans are about to become available. We won’t get anything meaningful from the USDA (as far as reports go) until March now.
1-13-26
The grains experienced a post report hangover today with the bears in total control. All three grains closed in the red. The good news is that corn wasn’t limit down which could mean some traders are questioning the accuracy of the (report) numbers. The corn balance sheet is about as negative as it comes. (which would suggest lower prices if believed) Soybeans fell another 10 cents as the SA crop estimates continue to grow. Local basis will have to do the heavy lifting now to entice grain sales. Producer selling is likely to dry up at these levels once cash flow needs are met.
2026 Jan Crop report
Carryout 25-26
Jan Est
Corn 2.227 1.972
Beans .350 .292
Wheat .926 .896
Yield 2025
Jan Est
Corn 186.5 184
Beans 53.0 52.7
In a complete shocker the USDA raised corn yield to a record 186.5bpa. This is above trendline and calls for a 17billion bushel production total. To make matters worse, harvested acreage also increased by 1.3m acres. This report was bearish from every direction on corn. It’s surprising that we didn’t finish limit down (30cents) If you take the numbers at face value. Carryout now sits at a whopping 2.227 billion bushels. The soybean balance sheet didn’t look much better as 50mb bushels were added, taking C.O. to 350mb. Today was a tough one to swallow if you’re a market bull.
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