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Gary's Blog 02/04/26 1:52:47 PM
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2-4-26
A Truth Social post by Prez Trump had bean market buzzing today. He claimed (among other things) China has agreed to buy another 8MMT of soybeans this year yet from the US. This is hard to believe as our Brazilian counterparts are roughly 80cents/Bu cheaper but there could be more to the story not released yet. Traders took the news and ran with it pushing nearby beans nearly 50 cents higher but ultimately finished 26.5 higher. Producers were heavy sellers on the rally. Tonight’s/tomorrow’s trade will be watching closely to see if this is a buy the rumor sell the fact type trade. It’s hard to trade solely off social media posts but this is the way the CBOT has functioned lately.
2-3-26
The treasury finally released some long-anticipated guidance on 45z. The 170+page document was seen as bullish by the trade. Grains have spent the majority of the session in the green. Improving Argentina weather may hinder any sort of rally as much needed rain is on the way. Locally grain movement has picked up as producers look to refill their cash flow needs. (Warmer weather/clean roads is also helping) The February S&D crop report will be released on the 10th.
2-2-26
February started out in the red with corn, beans, and wheat all finished lower. The grains lack bullish input to sustain and sort of rally and the mounting pressure from SA crop isn’t helping. Improving rain chances for Argentina should help stabilize their crop. Precious metals are trying to find footing after Fridays blowoff top. Temperatures are returning to a more normal range after last week’s deep freeze. Grain movement should pick up throughout the week.
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