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Gary's Blog 05/15/26 1:53:10 PM
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5-11-26 Planting progress %
TW LW OH
Corn 57 38 37
Beans 49 33 34
5-15-26
It full on liquidation mode on the CBOT. Funds are headed for the exit door on long positions now that nothing came to light after the meeting with China. Traders had built large premiums into the market hoping for a better outcome. Now some major chart damage is being done and momentum has shifted downward. It has been said that funds enter/exit positions in 3-day windows. It’s hard to tell how much further they will be willing to push the issue with such a long growing season left yet. Weather models are mixed and some areas are far too wet to advance planting.
5-14-26
It was a brutal day in the grains as the CBOT was a sea of red. China has yet to commit to any ag purchases (at least publicly) during this week’s big meeting with the president. Traders had built in considerable premium the way it looks that something would be announced. When headlines failed to include any ag products traders were quick to hit the sell button and momentum took us from there. Soybeans finished the day 36 cents lower nearby while corn closed 13 cents lower. Wheat followed along in both KC and Chicago ending the day double digits lower.
5-13-26
The bullishness of yesterday’s crop report lingered for a while but slowly subsided by the market close. Corn and soybeans finished just above unchanged while wheat was off 3 cents. There has been a lot to digest for traders over the past 24 hours and the reduction to the wheat crop remains at the top of the list. Trumps meetings with Xi is a close second and traders are following closely for any mention of soybeans or corn. Weekend weather will come under the microscope as forecasts at midday are too wet for planting to resume. We are now nearing the timeframe where planting delays/acre switches/yield loss starts to make its way into the conversation. Big market swings are possible heading into the weekend.
5-11-26
When peace talks with Iran failed late yesterday markets began to rally. This has been the theme for the past several weeks with crude oil usually being the first to go. There are a ton of things happening this week in the grain markets. Today will feature updated planting progress followed by a USDA crop report tomorrow at noon, and if that wasn’t enough a trip to China later in the week by the Prez. (not to mention HRW crop tours) All of these things themselves are more than capable of moving the market. Locally we seem to be more focused on the weather as producers would like to finish planting, but pesky rain showers keep showing up when things are about fit. Look for big market swings as funds are pushing net long positions near record territory.
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