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Gary's Blog 04/17/26 1:07:51 PM
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4-13-26 Planting progress %
TW LW OH
Corn 5 3 1
Beans 6 N/A 1
4-17-26
It was a wild day in the markets with the announcement of “the strait is open.” The Dow shot 1,000+ points higher while crude dipped double digits lower. Grains were caught somewhere in between as selling was heavy on the onset but buying resumed towards the close. Planting progress (or lack thereof in certain areas) is too large to ignore. There are some key waterlogged areas of the Midwest that look to stay that way for the foreseeable future. Until we see a change in the forecast it will be hard to break the bull. Bears would argue that other areas are ahead of schedule which will help offset any weather delays. Lets not forget how fast things can change as just 4 weeks ago we were worried about a Midwest drought.
4-16-26
Wheat’s enthusiasm faded as the day went on but we still managed to finish 4 cents higher. Wheat’s focus has been on every new weather model run and moisture odds/chances for that OK, TX, KS area. When that area looked void of any meaningful precipitation overnight/early morning wheat rallied almost 17 cents higher. Midday models, however, have added slightly better odds for those parched areas. The summer row crops are trading something similar only they are focused on that N. IL, IA, MN area where soils are saturated. Corn and beans both closed in the red. Locally we could possibly see some field work tomorrow if rains hold off today.
4-15-26
Corn and beans rebounded sharply today on what some are saying “planting delays.” Maybe that’s just the excuse because it feels far too early to be talking delays in mid-April. Field work locally has been halted with the recent rain showers but there were a few producers able to get some seed in the ground. Basis is slowly improving but cash pipelines are still full from the recent rally.
4-14-26
Planting progress numbers are ahead of schedule with soybeans coming in at 6% while corn was at 5%. This has changed over the past few years with producers now seeding soybeans first in most instances. War premiums are being extracted again in the energy sector as traders are hopeful for peace talks. Wheat is showing strength as crop conditions worsen out west. US weather is now front and center. Funds will be cautious with their large net long position.
4-13-26
Despite rising energy prices, the summer row crops came under pressure after spending the night in the green. Liquidation hit the soybean market hard, sending futures 13 cents lower. Funds are holding a sizable net long position making these types of days possible. Wheat was only one who managed to close higher as the HRW crop is hurting. TX, OK, & W. KS farmers are vocal on just “how bad” it is saying some fields won’t even be harvested. Forecasts don’t look favorable either for that part of the country. Those in the S Midwest are rolling along with Illinois/Indiana scoring some nice progress over the past few days. Look for updated planting numbers every Monday night after 4pm.
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