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Gary's Blog 02/26/26 12:55:05 PM
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2-26-26
An early morning rally failed as the news broke that China was not happy with the upcoming US/China meeting in April. Soybeans saw a 25cent swing within minutes of the news being released. Corn bulls also didn’t like the headlines as it too headed for the red. Rumors of SA wheat working into the US were also confirmed today, but the wheat market was able to shrug off the bearish news. Spreading trading was active in all 3 nearby contracts as FND is tomorrow. Today is a perfect example of how sensitive the grains (soybeans especially) are to headline risks. If a small Chinses news article can create this volatility imagine what would happen if they denied purchases of the additional 8mmts. (indications would be limit down trading) Heavy rains are forecasted for the Midwest into March. This is being advertised as “drought busting” moisture. Much warmer weather is also on the way for nearly the entire US.
2-24-26
Corn and wheat remain flat as ample supplies have kept futures in check heading into FND. (Friday) Those with open March positions will need priced or rolled by Thursday’s close. Soybeans rallied on China rumors, but no sales announcements were made. Traders will keep a close eye on this to see if any Chinese interest shows up in the PWN. Funds are starting to position themselves (beans) heavily net long per the CFTC report on Friday. This could leave soybeans vulnerable to a selloff if China fails to purchase the so called additional 8mmt.
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