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Gary's Blog 04/02/26 1:10:11 PM
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4-2-26
Despite soaring energy prices grains struggled to find strength. Traders felt uncertainty in the president’s speech last night and decided it was “risk on” in the energy sector. Grains are starting to distance themselves from outside markets as we enter more of a fundamental type of trade atmosphere. Weather will start to become the focal point as we start to monitor planting progress. There will be no markets on Friday, which could lead to an exciting open Sunday night. (depending on breaking headline news)
4-1-26
The CBOT had a post report hangover with futures deep in the red at midday. Trump is going to address the nation tonight on the Iran war. Many believe it’s going to reveal an exit strategy of some sort. (ceasefire agreement maybe) This is likely to drive price in all markets Thursday depending on what is said. For grains it comes on the heels of a 3-day weekend (no markets Friday) which adds even more pressure to the complex. Weekend weather models will also hold important information for the HRW areas. Some are trying to bring in rains into that W. Kansas/ Oklahoma area where it is desperately needed. It’s a volatile time in the markets and wild price swings are likely.
The report was relatively mild as acres & stocks came in near pre-report estimates. Traders responded mostly positively (beans & wheat) as futures closed in the green. The recent selloff may have contributed to the muted action following the report along with major outside-market movements. (Dow up nearly 1,000) These numbers carry less weight than normal as things in the world (Iran war) are drastically different then when the data was collected. (March 1st) Now its back to spring weather and planting progress for the grains.
3-31-26 REPORT
Acres 2026 (million)
Mar Est
Corn 95.3 94.3
Beans 84.7 85.5
Stocks
Mar Est
Corn 9.024 9.104
Beans 2.105 2.067
3-30-26
Corn came under pressure today (off 6 cents) as Fridays CFCT report revealed excessive fund length in corn and soybeans. (280k+ in corn) This had traders hesitant heading into the Acres/Stocks report tomorrow and banking some profits in case of a bearish surprise. Tomorrow’s action is likely to be a market mover with so much data being released all at once. The March/June acres numbers carry a lot of weight in determining price direction. Look for updated information following the release of the report tomorrow.
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