Gary's Blog  06/23/22 2:06:48 PM


Planting Progress 6-21-22

Condition rating G/E
               TW        LW       Avg        OH
Corn       70%      72%      67%      58%
Beans    68%       70%      65%      56%

Selling escalated to another level as futures sustained heavy losses all across the board.  This correction has caught many off guard as commodities in general have taken it on the chin this week.  A change in forecasts, seasonals, technical chart damage, and macro’s have all played their part in the decline.  Its almost a perfect storm and has created a snowball effect as Funds head for the hills.  The eastern corn belt is feeling the effects of the hot/dry weather as crops are showing signs of stress.  We haven’t seen any wheat samples yet with many waiting until next week.  Please check with the office for harvest hours and discount schedules. 

Grains were mostly negative as yesterdays sell-off spilled over into today.  We keep hearing a cooler/wetter forecast as the reasoning behind the decline, but very little precipitation is advertised in popular weather models.  This also could be some position squaring ahead of the all-important acres report at the end of the month.  Wheat harvest is right around the corner as the hot/dry weather has pushed crop maturity.  Combines will head to the fields about 5-7 days ahead of “normal” the way the forecasts stands today.  I will update the blog with quality and moisture data as samples start to roll in. 

As expected, price action was fast and furious today as longs headed for the exit door.  A much cooler forecast was offered in the extended which unfortunately pushed algos into sell mode.  Sizable losses were seen all across the CBOT.  This is classic weather market action with both sides of the weekend usually producing fireworks.  As the temperatures moderate there is still one theme that nearly all-weather models are holding onto and that’s dryness.  This would become increasingly concerning as we move towards July.  Newly established crops need to root down in June but prolong dryness/drought conditions will start to trim yield quickly.  The 2022 crop is far from being “made.”  Its all about the weather for the next 4-6 weeks. 

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