Gary's Blog  07/20/18 2:20:09 PM


Crop ratings 
G/E rating %
                TW            LW         AVG           Ohio
Corn        72%         75%        70.2%          82%
Beans      69%         71%         66.8%        70%



Wheat was out in front as world supply shrinks on less than favorable weather.  The U.S. might be able to pick up some export business as shrinking supply meets growing demand. (Russia/EU) This had Chicago wheat rallying 11 cents today.  Corn and beans followed along posting 4 and 3 cent gains.  The trade is starting to feel more fundamental and less emotional now that all the tariff talk has been digested.  Weekend rain totals will be closely watched along with Sunday nights extended forecast.  Crop conditions will be released Monday at 4pm. 


The market rebounded after a lower start with grains moderately higher at the close.  Technically we are do for a correction with the grossly oversold conditions.  Crop ratings will be closely monitored again Monday evening as many expect another decline.  Seasonally we shouldn’t be surprised as this is the norm.  The ECB has good chances for rain over the next several days as it is desperately needed by much of OH/MI/IN.  The rest of the corn belt weather is favorable with cool temps.


It was a quiet trade day with grains a penny or two higher at the close. (corn & beans) Weather forecasts are for the most part uneventful along with minimal trade talk.  The market is taking a breather and waiting for yield projections/crop tours/USDA reports to either confirm or deny this record crop.  The drought conditions in the SW part of the belt are slowly moving north and east.  Granted the crop outside of the rain barren area is maturing quickly and the dry conditions are a little too late to get Chicago excited.   Other news is lacking, and basis remains steady to slightly better in the ECB. 


Grains were once again higher with soybeans out in front. It finally feels like the tariff talk has been mostly digested by the trade.   Crop ratings came in below expectations last night with corn giving up 3% in the G/E category while soybeans gave back 2%.  It looked like the trade haven’t quite positioned for such a drop as futures rallied overnight.  Weather forecasts are dryer at midday but also cooler. Locally showers were spotty yesterday with some receiving up to 2 inches while others didn’t see any.  Better chances of rain arrive this weekend and some desperately need a drink to salvage this once bin busting crop. The top end record yield talk has subsided but overall, we still expect a better than average yield across the board. 


Soybeans jumped 10 cents today as demand remains stellar in the forms of exports/crush.  Low prices have done their job in stirring up fresh and nontraditional use.  We are also witnessing some bottom picking with futures near 10-year lows.  With Brazilian basis skyrocketing we are almost at the level where the 25% tariffs are effectively neutralized when comparing bids. (vs gulf) Corn finished the day unchanged while wheat fell 8.5 cents.  Crop conditions are expected to come in 1-2% lower today at 4pm.  Problem areas are now starting to surface in the Midwest from excess rain in MN to lack of moisture in the SW part of belt.  (think MO)  These areas will start to drag down yield if problems persist.  Weather will be the driving force in the market. 


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