Gary's Blog  09/21/18 2:16:41 PM


Harvest Progress
               TW           LW           AVG       Ohio
Corn       9%          5 %            6%           2%
Beans    6%           N/A           3%           1%



Harvest rolls on in Ohio with more producers hitting the fields with each passing day.  We have yet to hear of disappointing yields (beans) and most are +60bpa.  It looks like we will luck out and miss the rain today leaving a nice 3-day window to continue harvest.  Some early corn is starting to come off and yields look impressive there as well.  Markets were quieter today with trade news absent.  With all the back and forth tariffs now in place it almost feels like we are at a stalemate in that department.  Beans took a breather and finished 3 cents lower while corn closed 4 ¾ cents higher.  Expect harvest pressure next week along with month end consolidation.      


Markets worked higher as support levels held and encouraging export news hit news wires overnight.  The soy market bounced after new lows were scored and we haven’t yet breached the  psychological $7 mark on the CBOT.  Bean yields however continue to impress and its very likely we could see the USDA adjust yield estimates upwards in coming crop reports.  Storage and freight will keep basis wider then normal under these new circumstances. (tariffs/crop size) Corn harvest is just starting in the area with moistures ranging from 20-27%.  With prices low and no early premiums most will let mother nature dry the crop down and elect to wait till October to start shelling.  Early yields from those who have started are more than 200bpa.  Its still way to early to make any judgement calls but the news is inspiring.  Large crops are needed in this price environment. 



The market was busy posting new lows as tariff talk still dominates on the trading floor.  Its tough for bulls to make their case with trade tensions escalating coupled with monster yield reports now coming in.  Informa gave us their insight into 2019 acreage projections this morning with corn at a whopping 93 million and beans around 82 million.   It is probably accurate given the current market situation.  This however could change significantly if a trade deal is struck before planting time.  Wheat tried to hold itself in the green even with the heavy spillover pressure from the row crops.  It’s tough to find positive news outside of yields with historically low prices and basis at most locations in the country.  Local harvest reports will start filtering in as more producers make it to the field. 


Markets were once again weaker with tariff talk headlining news wires.  The President has again threatened more tariffs on Chinese goods.  We will likely see retaliation of some sort.  We saw our first new crop bushels of the season today (beans) and early yield indications have been good.  We are also hearing some staggering corn yields (+250bpa) from IL and IN which is pressuring the market.  Maybe the USDA isn’t out of line with their high yield projections.   We will run extended harvest hours as needed. Please check the website or call the office. 


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