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Gary's Blog 07/26/24 12:22:08 PM
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7-22-24
G/E ratings
TW LW AVG OH
Corn 67% 68% 62% 65%
Beans 68% 68% 59% 68%
7-26-24
Markets sold off hard today as weather forecasts have gone cool/dry for the opening days of august. Almost all the early week weather premiums have been erased. This time a year Friday/Monday’s trades tend to get amplified because of the weekend. New crop bean demand remains an issue as we just are seeing the sales to China like we should be. Overall, the window is closing on a weather threat to the 2024 crop. If rain does materialize look for the USDA to raise yields in coming reports.
7-23-24
The summer row crops have rallied 2 days in row to start the week with soybeans out in front. Forecasts continue to advertise hot/dry weather for most of the Midwest. The far eastern corn belt looks to pick up some beneficial rain in the next 10 days. (IN, OH, KY) Today’s rally was met with heavy selling from the producer. Old crop corn supplies are borderline burdensome which is reflected in local basis. Its tug of war between the funds and the producer.
7-19-24
Early session excitement gave way to selling pressure as grains finished on both sides of unchanged. The beginning of the morning trade saw wheat as much as 20+cents higher but grains faded away after the lunch hour. Funds have been very protective of their short positions in the summer row crops as any rally gets muted quickly. The weather is non-threatening and old crop supplies remain ample. It will take a large momentum shift to change current trends.
7-18-24
A sizable new crop bean sale to “unknown” kept the bean market up today while corn and wheat struggled in the red. Traders are viewing the cooler temperatures across the Midwest as favorable for grains which is keeping pressure on the markets. Large old crop stocks in corn have kept local basis in check. Realistically we are only 60-80 days out from new crop becoming available. Price action looks to remain sideways to lower unless traders get a reason to doubt a record crop is just on the horizon.
7-17-24
The bleeding has stopped, at least for now, as futures saw modest gains on the CBOT today. A derecho type storm made its was across E IA & W IL over the past 36 hours which has caused some crop damage. From the latest reports it sounds minor and localized but large amounts of rain were also reported. (4-6inches) It’s rare to be talking about too much in the middle of July. Traders are currently penciling in record large crops, and it may take combine data to prove otherwise.
7-15-24
The market trend is down, and the bears have had total control of the grains for the past few months. Traders had the weekend to digest Friday’s report along with the Fund position report that was released later that afternoon. Despite a loss of nearly 200MB and the record short position held by the Funds corn pushed to new lows. Algos trade momentum and it seems everywhere you look it’s nothing but bearish news stories. Midwest weather is and has been nearly ideal for pollination. With a normal finish to the growing season, we could record yields out of IL, IN, OH, and possibly IA. It would take some massive weather event to disrupt this year’s supply. (Derecho, early Frost ect.) It’s not all doom and gloom as lower prices should spur some demand as we become competitive again in the world marketplace.
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