Gary's Blog  04/07/20 2:18:32 PM


Corn bucked the trend in classic turnaround Tuesday action. Beans and wheat finished softer as buying failed to materialize. Position squaring is likely headed into Thursdays report. Market volatility will be high as the trade is closed Friday for the holiday weekend. Macro markets have seen decent gains as many believe the peak COVID-19 cases are almost here, and a return to "normal" is right around the corner. The grain and livestock markets are still feeling the hurt and it could take substantial time to recover. US weather is down right cold for the Midwest after the nearby heat wave moves through. Producers maybe a little gun shy about planting with soil temps so low. Rainfall maps predict normal to below normal in that same time frame. Prevent planting dates in the south will soon get more attention if conditions don't improve in the next week to 10 days.


Corn has sunk to new lows as nearly a third of Ethanol industry is offline. The demand situation is dire as carryout continues to increase. We will get a fresh set of numbers from the USDA on Thursday with the April crop report. Pre-report estimates are north of 2 billion on stocks. The bright spot is we are now the cheapest corn in the world making us the go to choice in the export market. Seed is starting to go into the ground in parts of the southern Midwest. The forecast leans favorable heading into mid-April for the fat portion of the corn belt. Early planting tends to lean heavier on corn acres based on history. Soybeans are struggling to find a story to grab on to as futures traded on both sides of the market. Wheat was again the winner on the CBOT pushing 6 cents higher. World weather concerns and possible limited exports (Russia) have traders hitting the buy button. We are still deep in the COVID-19 saga and uncertainty surrounds the marketplace.

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