Gary's Blog 03/04/21 2:41:54 PM|
Trading ranges were wide in today’s 2-sided session. Export sales were disappointing especially for corn. Net cancellations were seen which displeased market bulls. These however are considered “normal” for this time of year when South American supplies become available. The market remains in a vulnerable state and violent price swings are likely. Fresh USDA numbers will help guide price into spring planting. South American weather is still the hot topic as their first crop(s) remain susceptible to quality issues and delayed planting for their second (corn) crop. The world is in no position for a supply hiccup in S.A. or the US.
The sideways trade continues in Chicago as futures try to find a medium between demand rationing and weather concerns. Today we saw sellers take over the market, but prices still remain at historically high levels. More stories are starting to circulate about the weather concerns in South America. This developing story likely holds the key to production loss (how big is it) which translates into new highs on the CBOT. Any unexpected changes on the March S &D report will have similar effects.
Markets rebounded today with corn, beans, and wheat all higher. The recent correction was needed but fundamentals still suggest supplies are tight. Brazil and Argentina both are still fighting the weather. (too wet north too dry in the south) Until a healthy supply can be assured the bears won’t have much ammunition to break the market. Bulls would like to see China come back as a buyer but either way 2021 export forecasts are nearly already met. (and It is only the beginning of March) A surprise in the March 9th and/or 31st reports could push us to new highs. Spring weather in the Delta will become increasingly important as the planters get ready to roll. Record acres need to be planted in the US to meet the current demand.