Gary's Blog  07/08/20 1:51:08 PM

7-6-20 Planting Progress/ Crop Condition

Corn 71% 73% 68% 53%
Beans 71% 71% 64% 57%

It was an impressive day in the Wheat pit as Sept futures soared higher.  World wheat regions are seeing declining yields along with a smaller US crop.  Technical buy signals were breeched which stirred up some momentum from the algorithm traders.  This has provided a nice selling opportunity for those who just completed harvest before DP charges start.  Summer row crops did not receive much help with corn marginally higher while beans lost 4 cents.  It’s all about the rain in Chicago as the corn crop begins to pollinate in extreme heat. (over much of the WCB) The next 4 weeks of weather will no doubt drive price direction on the CBOT.  If key areas of the corn belt miss out on rain funds will be forced to cover shorts as the crop size shrinks.  As with any weather market moves will be hard and fast.  Friday will feature the July Crop Production report.  Look for position squaring in and out of the report heading into the weekend. 

Markets soared higher at the open on a hot/dry forecast.  Each forecast model run becomes increasingly important as confidence is low past 7 days.  Crop ratings are expected to remain elevated tonight yet but could fall substantially in the coming weeks if the heat sticks around.  China was back buying US beans as fears of COVID-19 and a Midwest drought have their buyers nervous.  The entire corn belt looks to endure 90+ degree heat this week.  If the rains return yield can be salvaged but the weather man has yet to confirm solid chances of that. Everything hinges upon the next 4-6 weeks of weather for the 2020 corn crop.  Wheat harvest is moving rapidly as NW Ohio appears to be 75% complete.  Yields have been average with moistures in the 12-14% range.  Please check the website for updated hours. 

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