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DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/25 10:51
Stocks Gain at Midday but Energy, Livestock, Metals, and Dollar All Weaken
Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday Tuesday, soybeans are 5 to 6
cents higher, and wheat is narrowly mixed.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is firmer at midday with the S and P
18 points higher. The dollar index is 3 points lower. The interest rate
products are weaker. Energy trade is weaker with crude off 2.60 and natural gas
.05 cents lower. Livestock trades are weaker with hogs and cattle near the low.
Precious metals are weaker with gold off 1.00.
Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade turning back higher
during the day session with trade continue to chop below the recent highs.
Ethanol margins look to remain positive short term but are narrowing a little
as unleaded fades from the highs. The daily export wires remain quiet. Weather
looks to be a little less active into the end of the month as we start pushing
into early harvest for the south with weekly crop progress showing good to
excellent at 57% (-3%) and 17% poor to very poor (+2) with 86% in the dough vs.
82% on average, 45% dented vs. 41% on average, and 6% mature, same as average.
Basis will likely drift lower into September contract delivery. September chart
the 20-day at $4.56 has become support with the strong finish with the fresh
high at $4.98 3/4.
Soybeans are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade firming back from the
overnight lows with oil rebounding sharply from the overnight selling. Meal is
flat to 1.00 lower and oil is narrowly mixed. Basis will likely fade into the
September contract delivery coming soon. Weather looks to keep near term
podfill weather in better shape for most with good to excellent at 60% (-1) and
12% poor to very poor (+1) with 6% dropping leaves vs. 4% on average, and 91%
setting pods vs. 88% on average. The daily export wire saw 132,000 metric tons
sold to unknown. On the September contract chart support is the 20-day at 11.82
where we find the 20-day moving average with resistance the Upper Bollinger
Band at 12.31.
Wheat is narrowly mixed as rallies back from the overnight selling to hold
the upper end of the range with row crop support helping action. Spring wheat
areas should see harvest move along well with the weekly report showing 62%
harvested vs. 51% on average with trade watching to see where early plating
moisture will be for the plains with the first planting report still a couple
weeks off. Matif wheat is weaker at midday. On the KC September chart support
is the 20-day at $7.29 with the Upper Bollinger Band at $7.69 as resistance.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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